Three Key Outcomes from President Hassan’s Participation in Ethiopia’s Dam Inauguration

 

22 September 2025

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s attendance at the inauguration of Ethiopia’s dam has sparked significant political and diplomatic developments in the Horn of Africa. Three major issues have emerged following his participation:

1. Breakdown of Talks with Jubbaland

Efforts by President Hassan to meet Jubbaland leader Ahmed Madobe ahead of the upcoming United Nations General Assembly failed. The talks, facilitated by Kenya, collapsed after Madobe—reportedly influenced by opposition advice—declined the meeting.

Villa Somalia had hoped to use the talks as a political showpiece to demonstrate unity and counter perceptions of deep political divisions within the country. Another objective was to create suspicion between Ahmed Madobe and Puntland leader Said Abdullahi Deni, who recently reconciled after a long-standing dispute.

However, opposition groups, particularly the Somali Salvation Forum, strongly opposed the meeting. This setback highlights the deep fractures in Somalia’s political landscape.

2. Ethiopia’s Growing Ambition for Red Sea Access

Despite the cordial relations President Hassan displayed with Ethiopian leaders during the inauguration, Ethiopia’s strategic desire for direct access to the Red Sea continues to intensify. Growing concerns remain that Ethiopia may seek to expand into Somali or Eritrean waters to secure a maritime outlet.

This comes at a time when Somalia has already lost the momentum of its earlier tripartite alliance—formed with Eritrea and Djibouti—which once countered Ethiopia’s ambitions. The weakening of this alliance further heightens Somalia’s geopolitical vulnerability.

3. Egypt Announces Troop Deployment to Somalia

In a dramatic development, Egypt has declared its intention to deploy troops to Somalia. The government-backed newspaper Al-Ahram reported that Cairo views Somalia as a strategic front where pressure can be applied against Ethiopia.

The paper further emphasized the long-standing historical ties between the two nations and described the deployment as a gesture of solidarity and support for the Somali people.

Analysis

President Hassan now faces a complex political crisis fueled by both internal rivalries and external pressures. His reliance on shifting alliances has left Somalia navigating turbulent challenges at home, with neighbors, and on the broader regional stage.

Compounding the situation is the looming end of his presidential term, with no clear national consensus or roadmap for a peaceful political transition and elections.

Meanwhile, the Somali Salvation Forum has announced a major conference in Mogadishu, scheduled for tomorrow. This will be the first in a series of meetings aimed at pressuring President Hassan to accept a political framework for consensus-based elections.

As tensions rise, President Hassan appears reluctant to compromise, signaling he may pursue every possible avenue to extend his hold on power.