Political Tensions Escalate Between Somalia’s Federal Government and Jubbaland After Failed Talks

 

KISMAYO, Somalia – October 9, 2025 — Political tensions between Somalia’s Federal Government and the Jubbaland regional administration have intensified following the collapse of reconciliation talks in Kismayo. The failed dialogue marks a significant setback in ongoing efforts to resolve long-standing disputes between Mogadishu and the southern federal state.

The talks, held between President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Jubbaland’s leader Ahmed Mohamed Islam “Madobe”, had initially raised hopes for a breakthrough in relations. Many Somalis viewed the meeting as a chance to restore cooperation, especially amid growing challenges related to federalism, security, and governance. However, according to sources close to the negotiations, both parties failed to reach common ground, with each side maintaining its entrenched political stance.

Rising Tensions and Regional Mobilization

Reports emerging from the Jubbaland capital suggest that regional authorities are mobilizing new security forces in areas of strategic importance — particularly Garbaharey, the capital of the Gedo region. These forces are believed to be preparing to assert greater control over territories currently under the influence of federal troops.

In response, officials in Mogadishu have hinted at plans to establish a new local administration in Gedo, a move widely interpreted as an attempt to curb Madobe’s authority. Several federal lawmakers representing Gedo have expressed support for this initiative, arguing that it would strengthen federal oversight and ensure equitable governance in the region.

However, the proposal has drawn criticism from Jubbaland leaders, who accuse the central government of violating the principles of federalism and attempting to undermine the region’s autonomy.

Deepening Political Divide

Analysts in Mogadishu say the standoff between Villa Somalia and Kismayo reflects broader tensions over power-sharing, security control, and resource allocation among Somalia’s federal member states. For years, Jubbaland has been seen as one of the most assertive regional administrations, often challenging federal directives and asserting its right to self-governance.

Sources within Villa Somalia argue that Jubbaland’s leadership has obstructed key national policies, including efforts to integrate regional forces into the Somali National Army (SNA). On the other hand, Jubbaland accuses the federal government of overreach and of using political tactics to weaken opposition voices.

Uncertain Path Ahead

Despite the latest diplomatic setback, both sides have expressed willingness to pursue dialogue in the future. Yet, observers warn that without meaningful compromise, tensions could spiral into open confrontation — threatening the fragile stability of southern Somalia.

The people of Gedo and the wider Jubbaland region continue to bear the brunt of this political impasse, as uncertainty hampers local governance, development, and security operations against extremist groups.

As Somalia moves toward national elections and the implementation of constitutional reforms, the ongoing rift between the federal center and its member states poses a serious test to the country’s fragile state-building process. Without mutual trust and political compromise, the dream of a united and stable Somalia risks slipping further away